This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card in Beijing, China. The tournaments are much smaller on DraftKings this week, so I believe that it’s a good week to concentrate more on money games. The most important GPP is the $8 entry that pays $10K into 1st place. That is the best you to pursue in my opinion. I will have a few LUs that I put into a great deal of GPPs hoping I can win all of them, but I will not have many LUs in total this week. Aside from that, almost all of my play with this week will be in the money games. Mostly H2Hs. With that said, here are a few plays I enjoy for UFC Beijing, in addition to my fade of the week.
Cash Game play of this week — Song Yadong ($9,100)
I believe Song Yadong could be the best drama on the card that weekend and you will find 4 fighters priced higher than him. Yadong is a -500 favored on Saturday and I believe this is a struggle the UFC is needing him to triumph in his home nation. I think in tournaments, Yadong is going to be the greatest owned fighter on the card with 3 women fighters priced above him, with much smaller odds of winning ITD. I think you may make a case to fade him because of his ownership in GPPs, but in money games we don’t care about possession. I think this is a good place to lock in a triumph and possibly ~100-points, and then try to find 3 more wins that we are able to afford. More often than not 4 wins gets the work done in cash games.
GPP drama of this week — Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This battle has got the 2nd highest FDGTD lineup on the card at -400. There’s also value on Hu Yaozong together with him $600 cheaper and the gambling line being nearly even. Usually when there is worth like that on an underdog it makes them among the more popular fighters on the card. I don’t think either of those men are UFC level fighters, but I’m a little more impressed by what I’ve observed from Coulter than this inexperienced Yaozong. I think getting Coulter at GPP lineups at a lower ownership than Yaozong makes sense this weekend at a fight that should not go all 3-rounds. If both of those guys get an early finish they will probably be on the winning lineup. I’m imagining Coulter are the lower owned guy of both and that’s what makes him my GPP drama of this week.
Underdog play of the week — Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really aren’t many underdogs I like to target this week for UFC Beijing. I have not loved creating lineups this week since I hate plugging in 2 underdogs when I think almost every favorite will find a win. I believe the best underdog to target this week is Francis Ngannou because he has a clear path to success and he has won in this matchup before. The path to success for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has the ability in order to KO anyone on the planet. If he can get a KO at $7.5k then he probably ends up on the 1st spot lineup, particularly if it is an early KO. In the first fight between both of these guys Blaydes was able to receive 2 takedowns, but Ngannou managed to get up fairly fast each time. If he is in a position to end up like that again here, I don’t find any way Blaydes will have the cardio to try to wrestle for 5-rounds. I believe Ngannou is your scarier guy on the feet and I don’t see Blaydes wanting to strike for extended amounts of time. I think Ngannou is live for an upset here but on a card, I don’t like many underdogs I believe he’s the best you to aim with his 1st round KO upside. Fade of this week — Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I really don’t enjoy targeting at least one of these women in the 9k range. I think they should all get wins, but I don’t find any of them becoming 10x their wages. For Mueller, she would want at least 92 DK things to hit 10x and that I believe she’s to receive a conclusion to make that happen. Mueller has 5 wins her MMA record and only 1 of the wins didn’t go to decision. She also only scored 72 DK points in her UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she will not be winning anyone a championship. I also think Zhang and Xiaonan have greater odds of winning compared to Mueller does so that’s the reason why I picked her over those two as my fade of the week. I won’t be making a great deal of lineups this week however when I had been making 20 lineups afterward Mueller would be on zero of these.
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